Micron stock heads for worst day since March 2020 amid looming fears about memory cycle

“Cyclical situations for DRAM have began to roll over,” the Morgan Stanley analysts wrote. They initially thought that if demand stayed sturdy into the fourth quarter, costs may nonetheless go up since provide has outpaced manufacturing. Now they fear that although demand has been sturdy on a “relative foundation,” it has worsened in the previous couple of weeks, resulting in decrease pricing expectations.

“Preliminary indicators are pointing to a more difficult atmosphere for pricing into 4Q following extended 3Q negotiations that resulted in steady worth hikes, and a reversal in pattern into 2022,” they wrote. That would shift the dialog on reminiscence shares away from earnings potential and as a substitute onto what a good worth for the names needs to be late in a reminiscence cycle.

Learn: The semiconductor scarcity is right here to remain, however it’ll have an effect on chip corporations in a different way

As for Micron particularly, the analysts famous that they’ve been “impressed” by the corporate’s “structural enhancements,” however they continue to be fearful concerning the pricing trajectory. Although DRAM costs elevated 35% over the previous two quarters, with expectations for a “additional modest enhance” by way of the top of this yr, they see “dangers of a steeper decline subsequent yr, given the elevated state of buyer inventories in some markets.”

They lowered their worth goal on Micron’s inventory by 29%, to $75 from $105, commenting that “earnings deceleration is seldom swish—even in recent times the place we now have been impressed by the trough earnings energy.”

Rosenblatt analyst Hans Mosesmann was extra upbeat, nonetheless, writing a observe to shoppers by which he referred to as considerations concerning the finish of DRAM cycle “overblown” and argued that traders are misunderstanding the distinctive supply-demand dynamics of the DRAM reminiscence enterprise.

As well as, he famous that Micron just lately initiated a dividend, which is “not an train achieved willy-nilly.” That Micron Chief Govt Sanjay Mehrotra, who “understands his enterprise properly,” was motivated to ask the corporate’s board of administrators to approve a dividend coverage, suggests confidence in enterprise tendencies.

Shares of Micron have declined 7.8% to date this yr because the S&P 500
SPX,
+0.25%
has risen 18.5% and because the PHLX Semiconductor Index
SOX,
-0.92%
has gained 18.4%.