Economy 2021: a disruptive year for the world economy

In that textual content, Professor Jorge Hernando Cunado, from Nebrija College, broke down a few of the occasions that have been anticipated to convey instability to world order and the world economic system.

It’s clear that, certainly, chaos has been current at many ranges within the yr that now ends.

Power and costs

Spain started 2021 chilled with chilly due to the storm Filomena. The bizarre drop in temperatures triggered a rise in vitality demand that led to a pointy rise in electrical energy costs. On the time it appeared considerably circumstantial.

Thus, initially of final yr and due to the snow we started to speak about one of many recurring themes of 2021: electrical energy costs.

Researchers Escamilla, Sanchez Martinez and Tilocca, from the College of Seville, defined to us in ‘Why does the worth of electrical energy change a lot in Spain?’ the elements that act within the Spanish vitality market to set electrical energy costs.

Then, in the midst of the yr, the Authorities made modifications within the calculation of the electrical energy invoice that Professor Jose Luis Sancha, from the Universidad Pontificia Comillas, defined to us within the electrical energy invoice within the free market: Are you overcharging my marketer?

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And, in Myths across the worth of electrical energy: ought to renewables be the one guess? , Professor Jose Guillermo Sanchez Leon (USAL) analyzed the administration of the electrical energy market and the elements that would assist (or not) to decrease costs.

Fuel is likely one of the fundamental sources of vitality for electrical energy manufacturing and this yr there have been many elements influencing the rise in its costs.

Some transcend the economic system and are interwoven with geopolitical causes, as defined by Professor Luis Velasco, from the College of Malaga, in his article Geopolitics within the boiler: what is occurring with fuel in Europe? .

Because the months go by, the conjunctural imbalance appears extra structural: what a yr in the past was paid at 39.51 / MWh right now is paid at 358.06 / MWh.

Debt and inflation

The upward pattern in international debt and the return of inflation after years of worth suppression have been different threats looming over the worldwide economic system on the finish of 2020.

Right this moment we all know that international debt has reached values by no means seen earlier than. In response to the newest replace of the IMF database , in 2020 it reached 256% of world GDP (226 trillion {dollars}). And rising.

Consistent with this reality, of their article Public debt, odious debt and coronavirus: Classes from historical past, the professors of Financial Historical past of the ULPGC Daniel Castillo Hidalgo and Sergio Ferri Solbes evaluation some moments in historical past by which the general public debt has had an vital weight.

On the finish of the summer season, Professor Francisco del Olmo Garcia from the College of Alcala defined how, within the new tutorial yr , the evolution of costs ought to be fastidiously adopted: “The truth that the inflation fee is constructive is just not so worrying just like the velocity with which it’s reaching comparatively excessive ranges “, he identified. The reality is that in October and November they’d a year-on-year rise above 5% when in February of this yr the share had been 0%.

Turning round with inflation, Professor Ruben Garrido-Yserte (UAH) analyzed in Storm clouds on the horizon: costs rise 5.5% within the Spanish financial outlook, after the INE’s announcement of the October worth hike. Since June 2008 comparable figures weren’t seen (then it was 5%).

These will increase coincide with modifications within the financial technique of the European Central Financial institution. Maria Nieves Garcia Santos (IE College) explains in The brand new financial coverage of the European Central Financial institution will enable intervals of inflation that, with the brand new inflation goal of two% within the medium time period , there could also be short-term short-term deviations.

This is able to assist stabilize the inflation expectations of financial brokers, one thing important for the right functioning of economic markets.

Different classes realized

This yr we found the significance of well-functioning provide chains for the great efficiency of the worldwide economic system.

Between March 23 and 29, the grounding of a mega-ship saved the Suez Canal closed , which triggered the paralysis of logistics chains and the rise in oil.

From there we realized the great financial weight of the invisible maritime transport business: a hyper-concentrated and subsequently highly effective sector , which strikes 80% of world commerce.

In Transport by sea, a key ingredient within the international logistics jam , Professors Rafael Villa and Tomas Martin (UCJC) defined the explanations for the logistics disaster and the traits of the sector.

On December 19, 2020 , a bitcoin was value 23,874.50 USD euros, on January 8 a bitcoin was already 40,675.80 USD and on December 19, 2021, 46,683.80 USD (on November 8 it reached the worth document of $ 67,582.60).

This reveals us the intense volatility (for probably the most various causes) of cryptocurrencies , that are additionally tremendously enticing to younger individuals and have to be regulated as quickly as attainable.

Labor and social rights

In 2021 we’ve additionally talked about labor rights and social safety. Of what has been achieved and what’s but to be achieved.

Pensions.

Emilio Jose Gonzalez Gonzalez (Comillas), Maria Gema Quintero (UC3M), Gayle Allard (IE College) and Santos Miguel Ruesga (UAM) have analyzed the Spanish pension system and its deficiencies, the significance of social dialogue for its reform, to decelerate spending with choices akin to extending the retirement age, all in an effort to assure residents financial sufficiency of their previous age.

The minimal interprofessional wage.

The SMI ends the yr at 965 euros, after the Council of Ministers permitted a rise of 15 euros on the finish of September. Roberto Fernandez (College of Leon) and Marta Fernandez (College of Vigo) clarify the enhancements caused by this rise, which appears scarce, to probably the most susceptible employees.

The minimal important revenue.

Spain closes 2021 having permitted the Minimal Important Revenue Legislation , which started on the finish of Might 2020 as Royal Decree Legislation 20/2020 .

In Might of this yr, Professor Nuria Reche Tello (Miguel Hernandez College) analyzed the results of the applying of this measure after one yr of its implementation.

For her half, Professor Henar Alvarez (College of Leon) analyzed the explanations that made it crucial to use it as a software to alleviate poverty in Spain.

In defending its approval in Congress, the Authorities signifies that “on this approach the regulation concludes the parliamentary course of, certifying the authorized safety of the regulation.”

And Professor Maria Garrote (UCM) talks about this proper in her article Authorized safety: what’s it and what’s it for?

What stays to be achieved

We’ve got additionally realized what stays to be finished to dignify work in Spain.

Professor Belen Alonso-Olea (UNED) talks to us about home employment , a sector that tends to be precarious and submerged and to which some of the susceptible labor teams appears to be working: migrant ladies.

Spain has not but acceded to ILO Conference 189 for respectable work in home employment, which proposes that working situations be no much less favorable than these utilized to different employees. This is able to lastly give them entry to unemployment profit.

And in addition, we have been ready to inform how the dialogue between the Authorities, the employer’s affiliation and the unions for the labor reform closed (Vanessa Izquierdo, Nebrija College). Tales that can proceed the yr that we’re about to start.

Syndicated by PTI, from The Dialog